movingaverageresearch.com
Historical MA Research & Event Tracking
Last update:2026-10-16
MOVING AVERAGE RESEARCH

Moving Average Research & Historical Market Analysis

Where does the market stand - and what happens next?

Historical outcome research across 230 US stocks and ETFs. Track EMA21, SMA50, SMA100 and SMA200 events with outcome statistics from more than 35 years of market data. Updated nightly.

230symbols tracked
78new events today
43%above EMA21
33%above SMA50
46%above SMA200
34>2 ATR extended
Last update: 2026-10-16

Market Overview

Fraction of the tracked universe above each moving average. ATR extension shows the percentage of symbols trading more than 2 ATR above that MA.

SMA5
42% ext >2 ATR: 1%
SMA10
42% ext >2 ATR: 10%
EMA21
43% ext >2 ATR: 10%
SMA20
43% ext >2 ATR: 14%
SMA50
33% ext >2 ATR: 15%
SMA100
40% ext >2 ATR: 21%
SMA200
46% ext >2 ATR: 33%
Market breadth
Weak
33% above SMA50
Extended (>2 ATR SMA50)
34
14.8% of universe
New events today
78
Active signals: 3313
Market regime
Correction
SMA200: 46% above
Major indices

Index MA Status - SPY · IWM · QQQ · DIA

MA Alignment gauge: Bear → Bull based on 7 moving averages. ATR Extension gauge: current distance vs. 3-year extreme reference (SMAa High).

SPY
$771.79
Uptrend Building
MA Alignment - 5/7 above
BearMixedBull
Uptrend Building 71/100
SMA50 ATR Extension - 0.49 ATR / hist. max 6.89
Near MANormalExtended
0.49 ATR 7% of hist. extreme
EMA21+0.08% / +0.09 ATR
EMA21 CloudAbove
SMA50+0.41% / +0.49 ATR
SMA200+6.51% / +7.64 ATR
IWM
$275.08
Downtrend
MA Alignment - 0/7 above
BearMixedBull
Downtrend 0/100
SMA50 ATR Extension - 3.74 ATR / hist. max 5.46
Near MANormalExtended
3.74 ATR 68% of hist. extreme
EMA21-1.91% / -1.42 ATR
EMA21 CloudBelow
SMA50-5.02% / -3.74 ATR
SMA200-0.89% / -0.66 ATR
QQQ
$728.00
Turning Down
MA Alignment - 3/7 above
BearMixedBull
Turning Down 43/100
SMA50 ATR Extension - 0.12 ATR / hist. max 7.53
Near MANormalExtended
0.12 ATR 1% of hist. extreme
EMA21-1.43% / -1.07 ATR
EMA21 CloudBelow
SMA50+0.16% / +0.12 ATR
SMA200+7.94% / +5.92 ATR
DIA
$521.18
Mixed
MA Alignment - 5/7 above
BearMixedBull
Mixed 71/100
SMA50 ATR Extension - 0.67 ATR / hist. max 6.89
Near MANormalExtended
0.67 ATR 9% of hist. extreme
EMA21+0.88% / +0.90 ATR
EMA21 CloudAbove
SMA50-0.65% / -0.67 ATR
SMA200+3.38% / +3.48 ATR
Nightly ranking · 2026-10-16

MA Momentum Ranking

All 230 symbols ranked by short-term ATR-normalized momentum (SMA10a), measuring the percentage distance from the SMA10 relative to ATR14. ATR values show MA distance in Average True Range units. Click any symbol to load full detail.

SymbolLast SMA10aSMA20a SMA50aSMA200a Alignment
WM 224.19 3.70 4.33 2.15 -0.07 Mixed
SCHY 32.62 3.27 2.71 -0.14 1.46 Uptrend Building
WCN 165.51 3.12 3.22 1.42 0.74 Uptrend
CTAS 213.06 3.11 3.80 3.41 7.24 Uptrend
RSG 229.65 3.11 3.90 3.15 3.87 Uptrend
WMT 117.87 3.08 3.81 3.91 -0.14 Mixed
XLP 86.68 3.03 3.72 2.37 2.45 Uptrend
V 399.75 2.78 4.06 4.25 10.16 Uptrend
KO 92.00 2.69 3.05 2.74 9.02 Uptrend
HD 308.24 2.64 2.49 -0.82 -3.77 Turning Up
XLV 177.19 2.56 2.71 2.70 7.74 Uptrend
INDA 47.95 2.55 1.66 -0.94 -2.84 Turning Up
SPGI 424.81 2.51 2.75 1.17 -1.14 Mixed
COP 141.73 2.44 3.76 3.66 8.95 Uptrend
TLT 79.97 2.40 1.39 -0.96 -5.66 Turning Up
MCO 483.69 2.33 2.15 0.59 1.38 Uptrend
UNH 406.67 2.33 2.70 1.73 4.64 Uptrend
PFE 29.44 2.23 2.18 2.85 5.64 Uptrend
LOW 195.72 2.14 1.78 -0.90 -5.88 Turning Up
REGN 796.34 2.14 1.51 0.27 3.00 Uptrend
LLY 1251.61 2.10 2.26 2.10 5.45 Uptrend
NKE 37.14 2.02 1.59 -0.43 -7.01 Turning Up
LMT 532.64 2.00 1.55 -0.97 -2.65 Turning Up
AMT 181.36 1.99 2.43 1.87 1.02 Uptrend
UNP 288.71 1.91 2.64 0.18 5.16 Uptrend
DHR 231.50 1.82 1.83 3.16 5.55 Uptrend
USO 157.31 1.82 1.88 3.60 10.68 Uptrend
ELV 428.43 1.81 2.49 2.57 6.61 Uptrend
DECK 86.58 1.76 2.59 0.75 -4.83 Turning Up
HCA 468.50 1.74 2.61 4.00 2.09 Uptrend
CRM 246.74 1.74 1.67 2.20 6.81 Uptrend
BLK 1120.78 1.73 1.85 0.55 2.39 Uptrend
TMO 696.49 1.70 1.65 3.57 10.00 Uptrend
PHO 70.18 1.67 1.95 0.19 0.77 Uptrend
CVX 219.32 1.62 2.48 3.09 7.78 Uptrend
ODFL 188.88 1.59 2.25 -0.17 -2.34 Turning Up
XOM 174.68 1.59 2.76 3.44 7.51 Uptrend
SYK 293.23 1.59 2.03 -0.91 -3.71 Turning Up
NFLX 72.61 1.54 1.27 -1.35 -5.00 Turning Up
ABBV 283.40 1.50 2.32 3.56 9.11 Uptrend
WELL 234.63 1.49 1.11 0.24 4.11 Uptrend
XLB 50.56 1.46 1.42 -0.86 -0.38 Turning Up
ADBE 251.67 1.45 1.45 -0.59 -0.35 Mixed
CSX 48.69 1.43 2.04 -0.19 5.55 Uptrend Building
LULU 99.09 1.38 0.58 -2.06 -7.82 Turning Up
FICO 769.93 1.36 0.24 -2.74 -5.12 Turning Up
IBM 234.12 1.35 1.31 0.33 -2.66 Turning Up
GWW 1331.17 1.33 1.96 1.50 4.50 Uptrend
SBUX 96.88 1.31 1.08 -1.35 -0.87 Turning Up
CANE 12.47 1.30 3.78 5.57 14.08 Uptrend
DIA 521.18 1.29 1.34 -0.67 3.48 Mixed
XLF 55.27 1.28 1.16 -1.46 2.31 Mixed
AI 12.16 1.27 2.06 3.08 4.35 Uptrend
HEI 308.64 1.27 0.85 -2.18 -1.68 Turning Up
XLRE 41.99 1.25 0.88 -1.99 -2.11 Turning Up
NSC 324.83 1.25 1.91 -0.53 2.54 Uptrend Building
HUBS 238.91 1.24 1.75 0.85 0.00 Uptrend
TDG 1134.24 1.20 1.27 -0.64 -3.92 Turning Up
GTLB 55.94 1.19 2.28 4.20 15.17 Uptrend
XLY 113.41 1.18 1.72 -0.40 -1.75 Turning Up
XLE 66.56 1.16 2.31 2.64 8.18 Uptrend
ISRG 427.86 1.13 1.71 3.62 -1.08 Mixed
BSX 44.14 1.10 0.59 -1.53 -8.86 Turning Up
ITW 271.19 1.08 0.79 -0.62 0.36 Mixed
VCR 379.71 1.07 1.59 -0.66 -1.42 Turning Up
SHLD 60.65 0.98 0.00 -3.48 -7.28 Turning Up
XPO 188.83 0.97 1.62 0.20 -0.95 Turning Up
NEE 78.96 0.97 1.17 -1.66 -5.62 Turning Up
CWST 86.50 0.92 1.02 -0.65 -1.30 Turning Up
XLU 41.65 0.79 1.80 -0.60 -3.89 Turning Up
FDX 295.54 0.78 0.86 -2.34 -1.02 Turning Up
TGT 156.63 0.70 0.26 -0.19 7.96 Uptrend Building
MSFT 539.44 0.68 1.91 3.22 11.31 Uptrend
UBER 71.27 0.68 0.87 -0.96 -1.54 Turning Up
RTX 186.95 0.65 -0.02 -3.48 -2.09 Turning Up
SE 97.50 0.63 -0.13 -3.09 -1.27 Turning Up
SymbolLast SMA10aSMA20a SMA50aSMA200a Alignment
XOP 194.89 0.62 1.70 1.81 7.21 Uptrend Building
XLC 112.44 0.60 0.37 0.31 -0.64 Mixed
AAPL 342.00 0.59 0.75 2.68 8.79 Uptrend
OXY 60.67 0.58 1.60 1.01 4.23 Uptrend Building
ETR 103.96 0.48 1.34 -0.22 -1.40 Turning Up
JPM 335.53 0.46 -0.10 -1.96 2.17 Mixed
VRTX 508.75 0.45 -0.14 -1.00 2.70 Mixed
UNG 11.09 0.44 0.79 1.80 -0.52 Mixed
MRK 145.19 0.39 -0.15 0.11 6.02 Uptrend Building
GLD 382.71 0.38 -0.41 -2.25 -4.76 Turning Up
ZS 220.43 0.34 1.07 3.36 7.19 Uptrend Building
COIN 183.81 0.30 -0.34 0.64 0.11 Uptrend Building
APP 279.29 0.29 -0.87 -1.79 -7.15 Turning Up
PLTR 200.50 0.20 1.11 2.97 9.14 Uptrend Building
EMR 162.15 0.18 0.96 1.56 4.66 Uptrend Building
AXON 417.19 0.15 -0.45 -3.84 -3.26 Turning Up
MELI 1856.98 0.13 0.96 -0.05 0.44 Uptrend Building
SAIA 341.46 0.12 0.19 -0.63 -3.59 Turning Up
QCOM 178.40 0.09 -0.74 0.51 1.30 Mixed
META 736.72 0.07 0.13 3.87 5.00 Uptrend Building
GOOGL 349.22 0.01 0.27 0.50 1.00 Mixed
GS 891.28 -0.01 -0.74 -3.25 -2.62 Downtrend
HIMS 29.38 -0.02 0.05 0.01 1.18 Mixed
GDX 87.02 -0.03 -0.78 -1.95 -1.27 Downtrend Building
MDB 366.49 -0.04 -0.40 -1.14 1.20 Downtrend Building
FSLR 178.81 -0.05 -0.33 -2.57 -4.38 Downtrend
RXRX 4.16 -0.07 0.30 1.63 1.81 Uptrend Building
BA 188.73 -0.09 -0.57 -3.11 -5.16 Downtrend
EZU 66.02 -0.10 -1.31 -3.64 -1.65 Downtrend
FLLA 29.65 -0.13 1.99 3.56 3.89 Uptrend Building
NRG 102.86 -0.15 0.27 -1.31 -5.50 Downtrend
PALL 20.58 -0.16 -1.80 -4.00 -7.59 Downtrend
VST 154.17 -0.19 0.91 1.31 -0.06 Mixed
IGV 109.60 -0.19 0.51 1.52 7.17 Uptrend Building
AMZN 254.76 -0.25 0.23 -0.47 2.17 Turning Down
MCHI 51.69 -0.27 -1.04 -2.97 -6.61 Downtrend
XBI 149.78 -0.27 -0.95 -1.87 2.45 Downtrend Building
ILF 37.26 -0.31 1.58 2.71 3.30 Uptrend Building
IFRA 56.57 -0.32 0.33 -2.12 -3.26 Downtrend
FAST 50.38 -0.33 -0.07 -0.01 2.84 Turning Down
MSTR 151.29 -0.37 -0.63 2.11 1.90 Uptrend Building
ZIM 29.54 -0.38 -0.22 1.05 4.59 Turning Down
BWXT 137.20 -0.40 -0.49 -2.34 -6.86 Downtrend
CMG 30.58 -0.43 -0.92 -2.58 -3.00 Downtrend
XLI 167.89 -0.44 -0.50 -2.56 -1.98 Downtrend
IBIT 46.59 -0.45 -0.66 2.29 4.27 Turning Down
SPY 771.79 -0.50 0.10 0.49 7.64 Uptrend Building
SOFI 15.09 -0.51 -1.24 -2.82 -4.22 Downtrend
ARES 114.03 -0.53 -1.09 -3.62 -3.03 Downtrend
KKR 87.63 -0.55 -1.54 -3.86 -3.92 Downtrend
TMUS 157.03 -0.57 -0.95 -2.66 -4.87 Downtrend
GRAB 3.00 -0.58 -0.58 -2.04 -4.78 Downtrend
HWM 219.70 -0.60 -0.95 -3.64 -3.90 Downtrend
SNOW 335.07 -0.63 -0.33 0.11 9.51 Turning Down
BX 109.20 -0.63 -1.48 -4.49 -4.05 Downtrend
BBAI 2.33 -0.66 -1.60 -2.87 -5.88 Downtrend
ORCL 134.47 -0.69 -0.80 -1.42 -3.06 Downtrend
CEG 275.00 -0.70 0.15 -0.03 -0.66 Downtrend Building
SIL 82.30 -0.70 -1.56 -2.73 -2.50 Downtrend
BUG 46.80 -0.73 -0.08 1.87 10.88 Turning Down
CLNK 22.87 -0.75 -1.12 1.33 0.00 Downtrend Building
DLR 174.47 -0.78 -0.95 -2.13 -1.53 Downtrend
CPER 39.45 -0.79 -1.11 -0.77 3.08 Turning Down
HOOD 103.99 -0.81 -1.54 -0.74 1.93 Turning Down
WEAT 24.28 -0.82 -1.54 -2.51 1.92 Downtrend Building
IWM 275.08 -0.82 -1.31 -3.74 -0.66 Downtrend
ENPH 30.82 -0.83 -1.00 -2.45 -4.34 Downtrend
HUBB 464.71 -0.83 -0.26 -0.46 -1.80 Downtrend
RRX 156.13 -0.86 -0.23 -0.86 -4.46 Downtrend
CORZ 14.46 -0.86 -1.56 -2.26 -3.50 Downtrend
PLTM 15.61 -0.87 -1.83 -2.80 -5.87 Downtrend
EQIX 996.26 -0.89 -0.99 -1.54 -0.11 Downtrend
DDOG 266.25 -0.89 -0.15 1.71 8.52 Turning Down
XRP 15.00 -0.91 -1.60 0.06 -0.68 Downtrend Building
PLD 126.94 -0.92 -1.52 -3.06 -3.69 Downtrend
WULF 12.62 -0.94 -1.70 -2.17 -3.37 Downtrend
SymbolLast SMA10aSMA20a SMA50aSMA200a Alignment
AMAT 430.01 -2.85 -2.61 -2.33 -0.39 Downtrend
CHAT 83.29 -2.69 -2.88 -2.26 1.51 Downtrend Building
ONTO 231.95 -2.62 -2.66 -2.62 -1.44 Downtrend
TSM 422.25 -2.58 -2.37 -0.96 2.41 Downtrend Building
SMH 558.84 -2.54 -2.50 -1.23 3.25 Downtrend Building
LSCC 107.09 -2.52 -2.38 -1.99 -1.16 Downtrend
ARTY 72.86 -2.44 -2.50 -1.47 5.05 Downtrend Building
LRCX 277.46 -2.41 -2.32 -2.02 -0.28 Downtrend
DRIV 31.12 -2.35 -3.01 -4.32 -5.04 Downtrend
RKLB 55.25 -2.33 -2.56 -2.66 -4.11 Downtrend
ANET 185.58 -2.30 -2.16 -1.47 3.18 Turning Down
REMX 55.74 -2.29 -3.86 -6.71 -10.91 Downtrend
EEMA 110.30 -2.29 -2.94 -2.89 0.59 Downtrend Building
LIT 65.57 -2.28 -2.52 -4.58 -6.36 Downtrend
XLK 189.19 -2.28 -1.96 -0.23 7.25 Turning Down
FORM 113.34 -2.22 -2.09 -0.85 0.17 Downtrend Building
DELL 473.39 -2.16 -2.10 -1.13 7.52 Turning Down
CAT 735.64 -2.15 -2.35 -2.53 -2.23 Downtrend
MTSI 271.39 -2.09 -1.39 -0.76 -0.43 Downtrend
CGNX 55.67 -2.06 -1.79 -2.03 -0.46 Downtrend
KLAC 174.46 -2.06 -1.88 -1.50 -0.76 Downtrend
SMCI 35.09 -2.05 -2.11 -1.30 1.16 Downtrend Building
NVDA 217.23 -2.04 -1.79 -0.96 2.56 Turning Down
VRT 214.75 -1.97 -2.22 -3.00 -3.65 Downtrend
COHR 250.60 -1.96 -1.91 -1.86 -1.63 Downtrend
GRID 172.11 -1.95 -1.93 -2.21 -1.65 Downtrend
MPWR 1249.20 -1.92 -1.66 -1.02 -0.89 Downtrend
QQQ 728.00 -1.88 -1.52 0.12 5.92 Turning Down
BTBT 1.08 -1.82 -2.78 -2.69 -3.39 Downtrend
ENTG 146.87 -1.80 -1.17 -0.13 1.66 Turning Down
IREN 30.39 -1.79 -2.71 -2.87 -3.61 Downtrend
INTC 95.37 -1.79 -2.62 -1.27 2.15 Downtrend Building
JOBY 4.81 -1.78 -2.78 -4.54 -7.80 Downtrend
AMD 562.23 -1.72 -1.71 1.02 9.11 Turning Down
EWJ 95.43 -1.72 -1.56 -1.15 3.48 Turning Down
SETM 26.68 -1.63 -2.65 -4.68 -5.98 Downtrend
POWL 170.82 -1.62 -1.63 -1.73 -3.28 Downtrend
URA 36.12 -1.62 -2.39 -4.02 -6.21 Downtrend
SPCX 148.62 -1.62 -0.92 0.15 0.00 Downtrend
ASTS 44.46 -1.61 -2.10 -2.65 -4.30 Downtrend
CIEN 356.52 -1.61 -0.89 -0.78 -1.40 Downtrend
NBIS 188.41 -1.59 -1.89 -1.75 0.95 Downtrend Building
CLSK 9.35 -1.57 -2.70 -2.67 -2.78 Downtrend
NET 316.32 -1.57 -1.68 -0.20 5.83 Turning Down
OKLO 30.01 -1.55 -2.23 -3.16 -6.35 Downtrend
MRVL 241.24 -1.54 -1.30 0.03 5.70 Turning Down
BE 236.30 -1.54 -1.61 -0.59 1.13 Downtrend Building
MU 931.24 -1.54 -2.00 -1.01 5.79 Downtrend Building
APH 81.49 -1.52 -1.03 -0.31 2.56 Turning Down
ARM 244.79 -1.51 -2.15 -1.27 1.38 Downtrend Building
PWR 642.21 -1.50 -0.83 -0.32 0.96 Downtrend Building
ETN 402.48 -1.50 -1.75 -1.40 0.58 Downtrend Building
NUKZ 58.53 -1.49 -1.79 -3.48 -5.76 Downtrend
LUNR 11.57 -1.48 -2.09 -2.78 -4.84 Downtrend
ALAB 301.98 -1.46 -1.60 -0.56 2.61 Downtrend Building
ROK 422.03 -1.44 -1.13 -0.96 -0.33 Downtrend
SMR 6.15 -1.43 -2.18 -3.22 -5.09 Downtrend
SOUN 4.89 -1.41 -2.37 -4.10 -6.06 Downtrend
IONQ 34.35 -1.39 -1.96 -1.97 -2.47 Downtrend
SOYB 26.94 -1.33 -1.85 -0.23 7.07 Turning Down
BAC 51.70 -1.32 -2.17 -5.05 -2.51 Downtrend
BLOK 56.90 -1.32 -2.39 -2.47 -1.57 Downtrend
DBB 24.60 -1.32 -2.57 -2.91 -0.45 Downtrend
AVGO 344.33 -1.29 -1.07 -1.93 -1.99 Downtrend
SCHE 36.14 -1.29 -1.53 -1.74 1.60 Downtrend Building
URNM 43.78 -1.27 -2.05 -3.97 -6.53 Downtrend
COPX 80.83 -1.23 -1.63 -2.56 -0.99 Downtrend
CORN 18.35 -1.20 -2.60 -2.74 0.59 Turning Down
BSOL 14.64 -1.19 -1.76 1.26 4.15 Turning Down
MS 182.10 -1.13 -1.90 -4.08 -2.29 Downtrend
TSLA 362.44 -1.08 -0.74 0.33 -2.18 Downtrend
SLV 51.92 -1.07 -2.09 -3.26 -6.59 Downtrend
ETHA 55.41 -1.06 -1.82 0.40 2.67 Turning Down
ACHR 4.27 -1.06 -2.08 -3.32 -4.26 Downtrend
JBL 287.14 -1.04 -1.17 -1.74 -1.17 Downtrend
CRUS 108.40 -1.02 -1.87 -1.87 -6.18 Downtrend
HUT 76.09 -0.99 -1.61 -1.41 -0.72 Downtrend
SLX 101.76 -0.94 -1.31 -3.04 0.44 Downtrend Building
Nightly scan · 2026-10-16

Today's MA Events

Events detected today, scored by historical hit rate, event count, and trend context (SMA50 above or below SMA200). Top 10 shown by default. Each event compares the current moving average setup with historical occurrences of the same pattern. Historical hit rates and forward returns show how stocks typically behaved after similar EMA21 and SMA50 events.

SymbolEventScoreHit RateAvg 5dAvg 15dnMA Align.
NET SMA50 Retest B 70.0%+0.9% +8.2%40 Turning Down
MTSI SMA200 Retest B 65.7%+2.1% +5.4%35 Downtrend
TDG EMA21 Bounce B 65.2%+0.4% +2.0%328 Turning Up
SPGI SMA100 Reclaim B 64.8%+0.6% +1.6%105 Mixed
WCN SMA50 Reclaim B 64.4%+0.4% +1.3%146 Uptrend
INDA EMA21 Bounce B 64.2%+0.4% +1.0%173 Turning Up
CSX SMA100 Reclaim B 64.1%+0.5% +1.2%131 Uptrend Building
CRM SMA50 Ext >2 ATR B 64.1%+0.7% +1.5%195 Uptrend
WCN SMA200 Reclaim B 62.7%+0.3% +1.3%67 Uptrend
CRM EMA21 Bounce B 62.2%+0.7% +2.0%336 Uptrend
SymbolEventScoreHit RateAvg 5dAvg 15dnMA Align.
TDG EMA21 Bounce B 65.2%+0.4% +2.0%328 Turning Up
INDA EMA21 Bounce B 64.2%+0.4% +1.0%173 Turning Up
CRM EMA21 Bounce B 62.2%+0.7% +2.0%336 Uptrend
IGV EMA21 Bounce B 61.4%+0.5% +0.9%370 Uptrend Building
DIA EMA21 Bounce B 60.8%+0.1% +0.2%400 Mixed
VCR EMA21 Bounce B 60.6%+0.1% +0.6%360 Turning Up
HD EMA21 Bounce B 59.8%+0.0% +0.9%532 Turning Up
IBM EMA21 Bounce B 59.4%+0.4% +1.2%485 Turning Up
SYK EMA21 Bounce B 58.7%+0.2% +1.1%576 Turning Up
LMT EMA21 Bounce B 58.5%+0.2% +1.0%561 Turning Up
SymbolEventScoreHit RateAvg 5dAvg 15dnMA Align.
NET SMA50 Retest B 70.0%+0.9% +8.2%40 Turning Down
WCN SMA50 Reclaim B 64.4%+0.4% +1.3%146 Uptrend
SPGI SMA50 Reclaim B 61.9%+0.5% +0.6%155 Mixed
HUBS SMA50 Reclaim B 61.2%-1.0% +1.3%67 Uptrend
BLK SMA50 Reclaim B 61.1%-0.3% +1.4%131 Uptrend
XPO SMA50 Reclaim B 61.0%+0.8% +3.9%123 Turning Up
UNP SMA50 Reclaim B 60.1%+0.5% +0.7%153 Uptrend
HUBB SMA50 Retest B 59.8%+0.3% +0.4%164 Downtrend
APH SMA50 Retest B 57.6%+0.8% +2.3%205 Turning Down
XLK SMA50 Retest B 56.5%+0.4% +0.5%154 Turning Down
SymbolEventScoreHit RateAvg 5dAvg 15dnMA Align.
SPGI SMA100 Reclaim B 64.8%+0.6% +1.6%105 Mixed
CSX SMA100 Reclaim B 64.1%+0.5% +1.2%131 Uptrend Building
TSM SMA100 Retest B 61.8%+0.8% +1.9%123 Downtrend Building
WM SMA100 Reclaim B 57.9%+0.6% +1.7%121 Mixed
SMCI SMA100 Retest B 57.7%-0.9% +1.6%71 Downtrend Building
MCO SMA100 Reclaim B 57.6%+0.5% +0.5%92 Uptrend
UNH SMA100 Reclaim B 56.2%+0.8% +0.9%105 Uptrend
WCN SMA100 Reclaim B 56.2%-0.1% +1.3%105 Uptrend
SCHY SMA100 Reclaim C 66.7%+1.2% +2.1%12 Uptrend Building
ADBE SMA100 Reclaim C 54.6%+0.1% +1.1%130 Mixed
SymbolEventScoreHit RateAvg 5dAvg 15dnMA Align.
MTSI SMA200 Retest B 65.7%+2.1% +5.4%35 Downtrend
WCN SMA200 Reclaim B 62.7%+0.3% +1.3%67 Uptrend
PHO SMA200 Reclaim B 55.0%-0.2% -0.0%40 Uptrend
SCHY SMA200 Reclaim C 87.5%+1.4% +3.7%8 Uptrend Building
HUBS SMA200 Reclaim C 71.4%+4.1% +4.2%14 Uptrend
AMAT SMA200 Retest C 54.7%+1.2% +2.4%86 Downtrend
CGNX SMA200 Retest C 51.2%+0.8% +0.3%86 Downtrend
LRCX SMA200 Retest C 49.3%-0.7% +1.6%71 Downtrend
LSCC SMA200 Retest C 46.4%+0.8% +0.5%97 Downtrend
DBB SMA200 Retest C 43.9%+0.3% -0.2%41 Downtrend
SymbolEventScoreHit RateAvg 5dAvg 15dnMA Align.
AVGO Death Cross C 69.2%+5.8% +8.1%13 Downtrend
SymbolEventScoreHit RateAvg 5dAvg 15dnMA Align.
CRM SMA50 Ext >2 ATR B 64.1%+0.7% +1.5%195 Uptrend
WM SMA50 Ext >2 ATR B 60.9%+0.9% +1.4%274 Mixed
RSG SMA50 Ext >2 ATR B 60.4%+0.2% +0.6%285 Uptrend
MSTR SMA50 Ext >2 ATR B 58.7%+0.9% +3.0%189 Uptrend Building
XLP SMA50 Ext >2 ATR C 53.6%-0.1% -0.0%274 Uptrend
XLV SMA50 Ext >2 ATR C 52.0%+0.0% +0.1%246 Uptrend
LLY SMA50 Ext >2 ATR C 44.3%-0.1% -0.2%307 Uptrend
Follow the events by feed
Free Atom feeds for any feed reader, updated every night. Daily events - one entry per trading day with all events by type. Golden & Death Crosses - one entry per cross with the symbol's history.

By e-mail: this site sends no e-mails and stores no addresses. If you prefer e-mail, copy the address of the RSS button and add it to an external RSS-to-e-mail service such as Blogtrottr or Feedrabbit. These are independent services with their own terms and privacy policies.

60-day tracking window

Signal Tracking

Track active moving average signals for up to 60 days and compare the current price move with the historical average outcome at the same point after the signal occurred.

SymbolEventSignal dateWindowCurrent moveHist. avg dayHist. avg 15d
GTLB 8x EMA21 In Cloud 22.07.2026
Day 60/60
 +78.4% +1.4% +1.4%
ZS 23x EMA21 In Cloud 22.07.2026
Day 60/60
 +55.0% +2.5% +2.5%
CLNK 9x SMA50 Retest 24.07.2026
Day 58/60
 +50.7% +0.8% +0.8%
MSTR 9x SMA50 Reclaim 19.08.2026
Day 40/60
 +45.1% +2.8% +2.8%
BSOL 11x SMA50 Reclaim 04.08.2026
Day 51/60
 +44.5% +0.1% +0.1%
CRM 13x EMA21 Bounce 27.07.2026
Day 57/60
 +42.1% +2.0% +2.0%
BE 14x SMA200 Retest 28.07.2026
Day 56/60
 +41.6% +3.2% +3.2%
MRVL 20x SMA100 Retest 28.07.2026
Day 56/60
 +38.3% +3.8% +3.8%
RXRX 27x EMA21 In Cloud 14.08.2026
Day 43/60
 +31.6% +0.9% +0.9%
ETHA 10x EMA21 In Cloud 31.07.2026
Day 53/60
 +31.3% +7.4% +7.4%

Showing the 50 largest current moves, up and down, of 229 active signals in this category.

SymbolEventSignal dateWindowCurrent moveHist. avg dayHist. avg 15d
GTLB 4x EMA21 In Cloud 22.07.2026
Day 60/60
 +78.4% +1.4% +1.4%
ZS 10x EMA21 In Cloud 22.07.2026
Day 60/60
 +55.0% +2.5% +2.5%
CLNK 5x EMA21 In Cloud 28.07.2026
Day 56/60
 +50.5% +17.0% +17.0%
BSOL 5x EMA21 In Cloud 14.08.2026
Day 43/60
 +43.0% +3.0% +3.0%
CRM 4x EMA21 Bounce 27.07.2026
Day 57/60
 +42.1% +2.0% +2.0%
RXRX 9x EMA21 In Cloud 14.08.2026
Day 43/60
 +31.6% +0.9% +0.9%
ETHA 5x EMA21 In Cloud 31.07.2026
Day 53/60
 +31.3% +7.4% +7.4%
USO 9x EMA21 Cloud Break 28.07.2026
Day 56/60
 +30.6% +1.3% +1.3%
IBIT 9x EMA21 Bounce 18.08.2026
Day 41/60
 +27.3% +2.4% +2.4%
SNOW 12x EMA21 In Cloud 23.07.2026
Day 59/60
 +26.4% +1.9% +1.9%

Showing the 50 largest current moves, up and down, of 229 active signals in this category.

SymbolEventSignal dateWindowCurrent moveHist. avg dayHist. avg 15d
ZS 2x SMA50 Retest 22.07.2026
Day 60/60
 +55.0% +2.7% +2.7%
CLNK SMA50 Retest 24.07.2026
Day 58/60
 +50.7% +0.8% +0.8%
MSTR SMA50 Reclaim 19.08.2026
Day 40/60
 +45.1% +2.8% +2.8%
BSOL 2x SMA50 Reclaim 04.08.2026
Day 51/60
 +44.5% +0.1% +0.1%
CRM SMA50 Reclaim 27.07.2026
Day 57/60
 +42.1% +1.4% +1.4%
IBIT 3x SMA50 Retest 11.08.2026
Day 46/60
 +29.6% -1.8% -1.8%
RXRX 6x SMA50 Retest 09.09.2026
Day 26/60
 +29.4% +5.3% +5.3%
CANE 2x SMA50 Retest 23.07.2026
Day 59/60
 +29.1% +0.4% +0.4%
USO 3x SMA50 Retest 03.08.2026
Day 52/60
 +28.8% -0.4% -0.4%
DELL 3x SMA50 Retest 29.07.2026
Day 55/60
 +28.1% -0.6% -0.6%

Showing the 50 largest current moves, up and down, of 214 active signals in this category.

SymbolEventSignal dateWindowCurrent moveHist. avg dayHist. avg 15d
ZS 2x SMA100 Retest 22.07.2026
Day 60/60
 +55.0% +1.1% +1.1%
CLNK SMA100 Reclaim 12.08.2026
Day 45/60
 +43.8% +26.8% +26.8%
MRVL 5x SMA100 Retest 28.07.2026
Day 56/60
 +38.3% +3.8% +3.8%
CRM SMA100 Reclaim 28.07.2026
Day 56/60
 +35.9% +1.1% +1.1%
BSOL SMA100 Reclaim 19.08.2026
Day 40/60
 +29.7% +6.9% +6.9%
RXRX 6x SMA100 Retest 09.09.2026
Day 26/60
 +29.4% +11.2% +11.2%
USO 4x SMA100 Retest 03.08.2026
Day 52/60
 +28.8% -0.0% -0.0%
CANE 2x SMA100 Retest 22.07.2026
Day 60/60
 +28.3% -0.4% -0.4%
DDOG 3x SMA100 Retest 02.09.2026
Day 30/60
 +27.2% +1.5% +1.5%
IGV SMA100 Retest 23.07.2026
Day 59/60
 +25.8% +1.3% +1.3%

Showing the 50 largest current moves, up and down, of 183 active signals in this category.

SymbolEventSignal dateWindowCurrent moveHist. avg dayHist. avg 15d
GTLB SMA200 Reclaim 27.07.2026
Day 57/60
 +70.1% -2.1% -2.1%
BE SMA200 Retest 28.07.2026
Day 56/60
 +41.6% +3.2% +3.2%
CANE 2x SMA200 Retest 27.07.2026
Day 57/60
 +29.8% -0.9% -0.9%
FORM 4x SMA200 Retest 28.07.2026
Day 56/60
 +28.5% +3.5% +3.5%
ZS 5x SMA200 Retest 02.09.2026
Day 30/60
 +27.6% -1.8% -1.8%
ENTG 2x SMA200 Retest 28.07.2026
Day 56/60
 +24.3% +1.4% +1.4%
PLTR SMA200 Reclaim 04.08.2026
Day 51/60
 +23.3% +4.3% +4.3%
TMO SMA200 Reclaim 23.07.2026
Day 59/60
 +21.7% +0.7% +0.7%
CRM SMA200 Reclaim 19.08.2026
Day 40/60
 +19.7% +1.9% +1.9%
MSFT SMA200 Reclaim 30.07.2026
Day 54/60
 +19.6% +1.6% +1.6%

Showing the 50 largest current moves, up and down, of 137 active signals in this category.

SymbolEventSignal dateWindowCurrent moveHist. avg dayHist. avg 15d
GTLB Golden Cross 11.08.2026
Day 46/60
 +32.8% -4.4% -4.4%
PLTR Golden Cross 09.09.2026
Day 26/60
 +18.3% +5.5% +5.5%
TMO Golden Cross 18.08.2026
Day 41/60
 +18.2% +1.9% +1.9%
DHR Golden Cross 14.09.2026
Day 23/60
 +13.9% +1.2% +1.2%
FLLA 4x Death Cross 17.08.2026
Day 42/60
 +13.1% -1.3% -1.3%
HOOD Golden Cross 07.08.2026
Day 48/60
 +11.5% -5.3% -5.3%
AI Golden Cross 05.10.2026
Day 8/60
 +9.7% +0.2% -1.3%
HIMS Golden Cross 30.07.2026
Day 54/60
 +8.7% +9.4% +9.4%
ODFL Death Cross 30.09.2026
Day 11/60
 +8.7% +0.4% +0.4%
WM Death Cross 22.09.2026
Day 17/60
 +8.0% +2.7% +2.7%

Showing the 50 largest current moves, up and down, of 77 active signals in this category.

Today's pick from top setups
TOP SETUP TODAY - automatically selected from today's highest-scoring events
NET  SMA50 Retest  B
70.0%historical hit rate
+8.2%avg move 15d
40historical events
Full analysis ↓
NET  SMA50 Retest EQUITY
Technology · Software - Infrastructure · Last: $316.32 · ATR14: 5.2871
Active signal - Day 59/60
Current Chart
SMA/EMA/ATR NET Chart
MA Alignment
MA Alignment - 2/7 above
BearMixedBull
Turning Down 29/100
ATR Extension vs. SMAa High (3y)
EMA21 - 1.24 ATR / hist. max 4.08 ATR
30% of historical extreme range
SMA50 - 0.20 ATR / hist. max 8.35 ATR
2% of historical extreme range
SMA200 - 5.83 ATR / hist. max 16.59 ATR
35% of historical extreme range
Current MA distances
SMA5-6.97% / -1.32 ATR
SMA10-8.28% / -1.57 ATR
EMA21-6.56% / -1.24 ATR
EMA21 CloudBelow
SMA20-8.86% / -1.68 ATR
SMA50-1.05% / -0.20 ATR
SMA100+10.29% / +1.95 ATR
SMA200+30.84% / +5.83 ATR
HISTORICAL OUTCOMES
EMA21 In Cloud
Total events56
Hit rate (15d)64.3%
Avg move 5d1.05%
Avg move 10d1.69%
Avg move 15d4.48%
Median 15d4%
SMA50 > SMA20070.3%
SMA50 < SMA20038.5%
Hit rate (60d)73.6%
Avg move 60d18%
Avg max drawdown 60d-13.89%
SMA50 Retest
Total events40
Hit rate (15d)70%
Avg move 5d0.9%
Avg move 10d5.61%
Avg move 15d8.21%
Median 15d6.2%
SMA50 > SMA20060.9%
SMA50 < SMA20075%
Hit rate (60d)66.7%
Avg move 60d14.6%
Avg max drawdown 60d-17.27%
SMA200 Retest
Total events15
Hit rate (15d)73.3%
Avg move 5d3.78%
Avg move 10d4.36%
Avg move 15d10.29%
Median 15d6.7%
SMA50 > SMA20072.7%
SMA50 < SMA20075%
Hit rate (60d)100%
Avg move 60d36.75%
Avg max drawdown 60d-11.19%
EVENT HISTORY
15.10.2026  SMA50 Retest -
09.10.2026  SMA50 Ext >2 ATR -
09.10.2026  EMA21 Bounce -
07.10.2026  EMA21 In Cloud -
14.09.2026  SMA50 Ext >2 ATR +8.8%
09.09.2026  SMA50 Ext >2 ATR +10.5%
09.09.2026  EMA21 Bounce +10.5%
02.09.2026  SMA50 Retest +31.6%
01.09.2026  EMA21 In Cloud +23.4%
31.08.2026  SMA50 Ext >2 ATR +15.7%
27.08.2026  SMA50 Ext >2 ATR +5.0%
27.08.2026  EMA21 Bounce +5.0%
18.08.2026  EMA21 In Cloud +4.2%
30.07.2026  SMA50 Ext >2 ATR -1.6%
29.07.2026  EMA21 Bounce +8.0%
Sector analysis

Moving Average Breadth by Sector

Percentage of sector members above each MA and their average ATR-normalized distance. Negative values indicate that the average sector member is below that MA.

Sector Sym. EMA21 SMA50 SMA200 Status
%>ATR %>ATR %>ATR
Crypto5 20%-0.7 100%1.1 60%2.1 Strong · Healthy
Energy8 100%1.7 100%2.6 87.5%6.8 Strong · Elevated
Consumer Defensive4 100%2.3 75%2.2 75%4.8 Strong · Elevated
Healthcare19 84.2%1.2 73.7%1.3 78.9%3.1 Moderate · Healthy
Communication Services7 57.1%-0.2 42.9%-0.4 42.9%-1.5 Weak · Below EMA21
Technology53 26.4%-0.7 32.1%-0.5 60.4%2.2 Weak · Below EMA21
Index13 46.2%-0.2 30.8%-0.8 69.2%1.5 Weak · Below EMA21
Agriculture4 25%-0.5 25%0 100%5.9 Weak · Below MA
Real Estate8 37.5%-0.5 25%-1.6 25%-1.4 Weak · Below MA
Utilities8 62.5%0.2 25%-0.7 12.5%-2.8 Weak · Below MA
Financial Services21 33.3%-0.5 23.8%-1.8 33.3%-1.1 Weak · Below MA
Industrials50 36%-0.3 20%-1.1 32%-1.2 Weak · Below MA
Consumer Cyclical13 76.9%0.6 15.4%-0.9 15.4%-2.9 Weak · Below MA
Commodities17 5.9%-1.6 0%-3.2 11.8%-4 Weak · Below MA
Investment theme analysis

Moving Average Breadth by Investment Theme

MA breadth applied to investment themes. Where is momentum building - and where is it fading?

Theme Sym. EMA21 SMA50 SMA200 Momentum
%>ATR %>ATR %>ATR
Artificial Intelligence & Compute30 26.7%-0.7 40%-0.1 73.3%2.9 ▼ Fading
Semiconductor Infrastructure9 0%-1.8 0%-1.5 22.2%-0.7 ▼ Weak
Capital Markets & Financial Innovation16 31.2%-0.5 31.2%-1.8 37.5%-0.8 ▼ Weak
Digital Economy & Platforms11 27.3%-0.7 27.3%-1 27.3%-1.1 ▼ Weak
Software & Digital Transformation11 54.5%0.4 45.5%0.1 54.5%1.7 ▼ Fading
Next-Gen Healthcare17 94.1%1.4 82.4%1.5 82.4%3.2 ▲ Rising
Future Mobility & Defense14 21.4%-0.8 14.3%-2.4 0%-3.7 ▼ Weak
Next-Gen Connectivity & Edge8 12.5%-0.9 12.5%-1.3 25%-2 ▼ Weak
Automation & Smart Infrastructure18 55.6%0.1 22.2%-0.6 44.4%0.3 ▼ Weak
Energy Transition & Smart Grid12 25%-0.7 8.3%-1.5 16.7%-3.2 ▼ Weak
Sustainability & Resource Transition4 100%2.5 75%1.5 50%0.8 ▲ Rising
Legacy Assets & Services16 87.5%1.5 56.2%0.9 50%1.5 — Neutral
Historical market context

Market Barometer - Moving Average Breadth Through Market History

Every major market crisis since 1985 left a measurable signature in moving-average breadth. Comparing today's SMA50 and SMA200 breadth with historical market events provides context for the current market regime.

Current regime
Correction
SMA50: 33%  |  SMA200: 46%
ATR ext: -0.7
Closest historical parallel
Tariff Shock (2025.01-04)
Based on SMA50/SMA200 breadth profile
Extension signal
Near MA / Oversold
Avg SMA50 ATR: -0.7
34 symbols >2 ATR extended
Historical MA breadth at major market events - 1985 to present
Black
Monday
1987
Gulf War
1990
Dotcom
Crash
Financial
Crisis
EU Debt
2011
Vol
2018
COVID
2020
Inflation
2022
Tariff
2025
TODAY
198519901995200020052010201520202026
Major crisis Correction Current
EventPeriod SMA50 breadth
at trough		 SMA200 breadth
at trough		 Avg ATR ext.
SMA50		 Breadth barRecovery time
Today · 2026-10-16 Active 33% 46% -0.7 Correction
Tariff Shock 2025.01-04 34%41% -0.6 4 months
Yen Carry / Tech 2024.07-08 38%52% -0.3 6 weeks
SVB Crisis 2023.02-03 44%54% +0.2 8 weeks
Inflation Bear 2022.01-10 14%18% -2.1 14 months
COVID Crash 2020.02-03 4%7% -4.8 5 months
China / Volmageddon 2018.09-12 18%22% -1.8 6 months
EU Debt Crisis 2011.05-10 21%29% -1.4 7 months
Financial Crisis 2007.10-2009.03 3%4% -5.2 40 months
Dotcom Crash 2000.03-2002.10 8%11% -3.8 36 months
Russia / LTCM 1998.07-10 26%38% -1.2 3 months
Asia Crisis 1997.07-10 22%31% -1.4 4 months
Tequila Crisis 1994.11-95 28%34% -0.9 5 months
Gulf War 1990.07-10 18%24% -1.6 8 months
Black Monday 1987.08-10 9%16% -3.1 15 months

Recovery time = months until SMA50 breadth returned above 60%.

Symbol research

Symbol detail

Search any tracked symbol to see current MA distances, ATR extension vs. SMAa High, MA alignment gauge, and historical outcome statistics.

Original research

What happens after key MA events?

Aggregated outcome statistics across all 230 symbols and data since 1990. Each card shows the share of events followed by a positive return after 15 and after 60 trading days, and the average largest drawdown within 60 days. Points in brackets are the difference to the baseline. The first card is the baseline: the same figures for every trading day, with or without an event. An event only tells you something where it differs from that baseline. No stops, costs or position sizes are modelled.

Baseline - any trading day

15 days: 55.8% positive · avg +1.23%
60 days: 60.8% positive · avg +5.01% · avg max drawdown -9.8% · 35.1% of days with a drawdown of 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 56.3% · below: 55.1% (15 days)
n = 1,262,930 · every trading day of every symbol since 1990, event or not. Compare each event with this card.

EMA21 In Cloud - from above

15 days: 56.8% positive (+1.0 pts) · avg +1.37%
60 days: 60.9% positive (+0.1 pts) · avg +4.70% · avg max drawdown -9.4% · 33.9% with 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 56.9% · below: 56.5% (15 days)
n = 39,661

EMA21 Cloud Break - through the cloud

15 days: 55.7% positive (-0.1 pts) · avg +1.19%
60 days: 60.4% positive (-0.4 pts) · avg +4.81% · avg max drawdown -9.2% · 33.3% with 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 56.4% · below: 53.8% (15 days)
n = 5,884

EMA21 Bounce - back above the cloud

15 days: 55.6% positive (-0.2 pts) · avg +1.11%
60 days: 60.5% positive (-0.3 pts) · avg +4.62% · avg max drawdown -9.5% · 34.3% with 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 55.9% · below: 55.2% (15 days)
n = 72,176

SMA50 Retest - close below

15 days: 55.4% positive (-0.4 pts) · avg +1.14%
60 days: 60.3% positive (-0.5 pts) · avg +4.62% · avg max drawdown -9.8% · 35.6% with 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 56.2% · below: 53.7% (15 days)
n = 27,233

SMA50 Reclaim - close back above

15 days: 55.6% positive (-0.2 pts) · avg +1.08%
60 days: 60.3% positive (-0.5 pts) · avg +4.69% · avg max drawdown -9.9% · 35.7% with 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 55.8% · below: 55.5% (15 days)
n = 25,498

SMA100 Retest - close below

15 days: 55.6% positive (-0.2 pts) · avg +1.27%
60 days: 60.4% positive (-0.4 pts) · avg +4.77% · avg max drawdown -9.9% · 36.1% with 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 56.4% · below: 53.6% (15 days)
n = 18,649

SMA200 Retest - close below

15 days: 55.3% positive (-0.5 pts) · avg +1.11%
60 days: 60.8% positive (+0.0 pts) · avg +4.75% · avg max drawdown -10.0% · 36.9% with 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 55% · below: 55.9% (15 days)
n = 12,072

SMA200 Reclaim - close back above

15 days: 54.2% positive (-1.6 pts) · avg +0.71%
60 days: 59.8% positive (-1.0 pts) · avg +4.11% · avg max drawdown -9.9% · 35.6% with 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 54.4% · below: 54.1% (15 days)
n = 11,410

Golden Cross SMA50×SMA200

15 days: 55.9% positive (+0.1 pts) · avg +1.05%
60 days: 60.7% positive (-0.1 pts) · avg +5.08% · avg max drawdown -9.2% · 32.8% with 10% or more
n = 3,530

Death Cross SMA50×SMA200

15 days: 57.2% positive (+1.4 pts) · avg +1.42%
60 days: 63.3% positive (+2.5 pts) · avg +5.72% · avg max drawdown -10.3% · 36.8% with 10% or more
n = 3,513

SMA50 Extension >2 ATR

15 days: 55.9% positive (+0.1 pts) · avg +1.13%
60 days: 60.4% positive (-0.4 pts) · avg +4.53% · avg max drawdown -9.2% · 33.4% with 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 56.1% · below: 55.8% (15 days)
n = 43,574

Market regime research

MA breadth by market regime - year by year

Average percentage of symbols above each MA and average ATR-normalized distance by year. Crisis years are highlighted in red, and the current year in green.

Year EMA21 SMA50 SMA200
%>ATR %>ATR %>ATR
2026 51%0.2 52%0.6 60%2.3
2025 57%0.4 58%0.9 62%2.8
2024 59%0.5 63%1.2 74%4.5
2023 58%0.4 59%1 67%3
2022 44%-0.1 41%-0.2 33%-1.2
2021 60%0.5 63%1.2 79%5.6
2020 65%0.6 67%1.5 67%2.7
Year EMA21 SMA50 SMA200
%>ATR %>ATR %>ATR
2019 66%0.6 67%1.4 67%3.1
2018 52%0.1 51%0.4 60%2.5
2017 66%0.7 71%1.6 80%5.7
2016 60%0.4 61%1 67%3.1
2015 49%0 49%0.1 50%0.6
2014 60%0.3 62%0.9 74%3.6
2013 64%0.6 68%1.4 78%4.9
2012 58%0.3 59%0.8 64%2.4
2011 53%0.1 54%0.4 60%2.6
2010 61%0.4 61%1.1 68%3.3
Year EMA21 SMA50 SMA200
%>ATR %>ATR %>ATR
2009 64%0.5 70%1.3 60%2.7
2008 40%-0.3 36%-0.5 28%-1.5
2007 57%0.3 57%0.7 70%3.2
2006 60%0.4 61%1 70%3.4
2005 56%0.3 59%0.8 70%3.1
2004 61%0.4 63%1 69%3.5
2003 65%0.6 69%1.4 75%4.5
2002 46%0 46%0 39%-0.4
2001 53%0.1 52%0.4 46%0.3
2000 51%0.2 52%0.5 54%1.6
Year EMA21 SMA50 SMA200
%>ATR %>ATR %>ATR
1999 53%0.3 50%0.7 34%1.4
1998 47%0.2 47%0.7 42%1.4
1997 53%0.4 55%1.1 70%5.1
1996 53%0.4 57%1.1 66%3.8
1995 59%0.6 64%1.7 74%6.3
1994 49%0.2 50%0.5 56%2.1
1993 51%0.3 54%0.9 63%3.9
1992 50%0.3 50%0.8 56%2.5
1991 54%0.5 59%1.4 68%5.4
1990 47%0.2 47%0.5 46%1.1
Education

Moving Average Basics

Core concepts behind the research methodology - how moving averages are calculated, interpreted, and used as a trading system.

A Simple Moving Average (SMA) - called GD in German-speaking markets - calculates the arithmetic mean of closing prices over a defined period. The SMA50 adds up the last 50 closing prices and divides by 50. Each new trading day, the oldest price drops off and the newest is added, so the line “moves” forward in time.

SMAs are direction-neutral: they simply reflect where price has averaged over the lookback window. A rising SMA50 means the average of the last 50 closes is higher than it was yesterday. Our dataset covers 230 US stocks and ETFs back to 1990, which gives 27,233 SMA50 Retest events across multiple market regimes.

An Exponential Moving Average (EMA) applies a weighting multiplier that gives more importance to recent prices. The EMA21 uses a smoothing factor of 2/(21+1) ≈ 0.0909, so yesterday’s EMA contributes about 90.9% to today’s value and today’s close contributes 9.1%. This means the EMA reacts faster to price changes than an SMA of the same period.

We use the EMA21 as a cloud: EMA21H (high-based) and EMA21L (low-based) define upper and lower boundaries. Price trading between these two lines is “in the cloud” - a zone of consolidation. In our universe, 39,661 drops into the cloud from above were followed by a positive 15-day return in 56.8% of cases, with an average 15-day move of +1.37% (baseline: 55.8% and +1.23%).

Average True Range (ATR) measures volatility by averaging the “true range” over 14 periods. True range is the largest of: today’s high minus low, today’s high minus yesterday’s close, or yesterday’s close minus today’s low. The result is a volatility-adjusted unit specific to each symbol.

We use the normalized ATR, i.e. ATR14 as a percentage of the price. Expressing the percentage distance from an MA relative to this value (SMAa values) makes symbols comparable across different price levels and volatility regimes. A 3% gap above SMA50 means something different for a low-volatility utility stock versus a high-volatility semiconductor. A SMAa value above 2.0 means the distance above the MA is more than twice the average daily range. Our SMAa High reference is the average of the top 10% of extension readings over the last 3 years.

The classic two-MA system uses a faster and a slower average to define trend. When the faster MA is above the slower, the trend is up; when below, the trend is down. Our primary system uses SMA50 and SMA200: SMA50 > SMA200 signals a long-term uptrend, SMA50 < SMA200 a downtrend.

We report every event separately for both states. In our dataset, SMA50 Retests show a hit rate of 56.2% when the SMA50 is above the SMA200 and 53.7% when it is below; for EMA21 Bounces the figures are 55.9% and 55.2%. Whether the trend context helps is therefore a question the numbers answer for each event, not a rule.

A Golden Cross occurs when the SMA50 crosses above the SMA200 from below - signaling a potential shift from long-term downtrend to uptrend. A Death Cross is the reverse: SMA50 crosses below SMA200. These are low-frequency events: in our universe of 230 symbols since 1990, we observe 3,530 Golden Crosses and 3,513 Death Crosses in total.

In our data, Golden Crosses were followed by a positive 15-day return in 55.9% of cases (average +1.05%), Death Crosses in 57.2% (average +1.42%). The baseline for any trading day is 55.8% and +1.23%. Read both crosses against that baseline: a figure close to it means the cross itself adds little. Over 60 trading days the picture is: Golden Cross 60.7% positive with an average largest drawdown of -9.2%, Death Cross 63.3% and -10.3%, baseline 60.8% and -9.8%.

Moving averages create support and resistance because large institutional participants - fund managers, algorithmic systems - use the same levels to make buy and sell decisions. When price approaches the SMA200 from above, buyers who use this level as a reference will step in, creating demand that slows the decline.

Our retest events capture exactly this dynamic. A SMA50 Retest is recorded on the first close below the SMA50 after at least 3 closes above it. Across 27,233 such events in our dataset since 1990, the average 15-day outcome is +1.14% with a 55.4% hit rate, against a baseline of +1.23% and 55.8% for any trading day. The gap between the two is the measurable effect of the level.

The SMAa High reference answers the question: “How extended does this symbol typically get at its most extreme?” We calculate it by taking all daily SMAa readings - the percentage distance from the MA divided by ATR14 - for each symbol over the last 3 years, sorting them from highest to lowest, and averaging the top 10% of positive values.

This gives a symbol-specific “typical extreme” rather than an all-time outlier. If a symbol’s SMAa High for SMA50 is 3.2, it means that during extreme extension phases over the last 3 years, the average peak SMA50 extension was 3.2 on the SMAa scale. The ATR Extension Gauge in each symbol detail shows how today’s reading compares to this historical extreme.

Transparency

Moving Average Research Methodology

How every number on this site is calculated - from raw price data to the statistics you see. Historical coverage varies by symbol. The research uses the longest available daily history for each security, while market-event breadth is based on the historical universe available at the time.

Universe: 230 US stocks and ETFs, covering large-cap indices, sector ETFs, and individual stocks across all major sectors. The universe is curated for liquidity and sufficient price history.

History: Data covers from 1990 to the present. Earlier data exists for some symbols but is excluded to ensure consistent cross-symbol comparability. A moving average only enters the statistics once it exists for a symbol, for example after 200 trading days for the SMA200.

Survivorship bias: The statistics apply today's symbol list to the whole history. Companies that were delisted or acquired are missing, and today's universe contains stocks that are tracked because they became important. This lifts all historical figures, including the baseline.

Source: End-of-day OHLCV (Open, High, Low, Close, Volume) data from public US market data sources. Data is collected after US market close and processed nightly.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): The arithmetic mean of the last N closing prices. SMA50 = sum of last 50 closes / 50. Updated daily as the oldest value drops off and the newest close is added.

EMA21 (Exponential Moving Average, 21-period): A weighted average that gives more weight to recent prices. Smoothing factor = 2 / (21 + 1) ≈ 0.0909. Today’s EMA = yesterday’s EMA × 0.9091 + today’s close × 0.0909.

EMA21 Cloud: Two EMA21 lines calculated on daily Highs (EMA21H) and daily Lows (EMA21L). Price above EMA21H = “Above cloud”. Price between EMA21H and EMA21L = “In cloud”. Price below EMA21L = “Below cloud”.

Tracked MAs: SMA5, SMA10, EMA21, SMA20, SMA50, SMA100, SMA200.

SMA Retest (SMA50, SMA100, SMA200): The close was above the MA for at least 3 consecutive days, then closes below it. Detected on the first close below. Signals a test of a widely-watched level.

SMA Reclaim (SMA50, SMA100, SMA200): The close was below the MA for at least 3 consecutive days, then closes above it. Detected on the first close above.

EMA21 In Cloud: The close was above the EMA21 cloud for at least 3 consecutive days, then closes inside it (between EMA21L and EMA21H).

EMA21 Cloud Break: The close was above the cloud for at least 3 consecutive days, then closes below EMA21L on the next day, passing through the cloud in one session.

EMA21 Bounce: The close was inside the cloud on the previous day and is back above EMA21H.

Extension >2 ATR: The ATR-normalized distance of the close above the SMA50 exceeds 2.0. Detected only on the first day the threshold is crossed, not on subsequent days while extended.

Not counted: An MA that does not exist yet for a symbol (for example the SMA200 in the first 200 trading days) produces no events.

Golden Cross: SMA50 crosses above SMA200 from below. Detected on the first crossing day.

Death Cross: SMA50 crosses below SMA200 from above. Detected on the first crossing day.

Signal date: The event is recorded on the day it is detected. The closing price on that day is used as the entry reference price.

Forward returns: Measured at exactly 5, 10, and 15 trading days after the signal date. Return = (close at day N − signal close) / signal close × 100. Trading days only - weekends and holidays are excluded.

Baseline: The same 15-day calculation for every trading day of every symbol since 1990, whether an event occurred or not. Currently 55.8% positive with an average of +1.23% (n = 1,262,930). An event statistic is only informative where it differs from this.

60-day outcomes: For the slower events a 15-day window is short. Every event is therefore also measured after 60 trading days: the share with a positive return, the average return, and the largest drawdown, i.e. the lowest close within those 60 days relative to the signal close (0% if the close never fell below it). The baseline for any trading day is 60.8% positive, +5.01% on average, with an average largest drawdown of -9.8%; 35.1% of all days were followed by a drawdown of 10% or more.

Hit rate: The percentage of events where the 15-day forward return is positive. A hit rate of 55% means 55 out of 100 historical signals produced a positive return after 15 trading days.

Bull / Bear alignment hit rate: The same hit rate calculation applied only to events that occurred when the symbol was in a bullish (SMA50 > SMA200) or bearish (SMA50 < SMA200) trend context respectively.

Median 15d: The median (middle value) of all 15-day returns for a given event type and symbol. Less affected by outliers than the average.

ATR(14): Average True Range over 14 periods. True Range = max(High − Low, |High − prev. Close|, |Low − prev. Close|). ATR = 14-period smoothed average of True Range values. The site uses the normalized form (NATR): ATR divided by the close, in percent.

ATR-normalized distance (GDa): The percentage distance from an MA normalized by ATR(14). GD50a = ((Close − SMA50) / SMA50) × 100 / ATR(14). Positive values indicate that price is above the MA; negative values indicate that price is below it. This normalization makes MA extensions comparable across symbols with different price levels and volatility.

GDa High: Symbol-specific reference for typical extreme extension. Calculated as the average of the top 10% of positive GDa readings over the last 3 years. Used as the 100% reference in the ATR Extension gauge. If today’s GDa is 60% of GDa High, the current extension is at 60% of the symbol’s typical extreme.

Score (0–100): Based on how many of the 7 tracked MAs price is currently above. Each MA contributes proportionally: 7/7 above = score 100, 0/7 above = score 0.

Labels: Uptrend: price above all 7 MAs. Uptrend Building: above at least 5 of 7, including both slow MAs. Turning Down: above both slow MAs but above at most one of the three fast MAs. Turning Up: above at least two fast MAs but below both slow MAs. Downtrend: above at most 2 of 7 and below both slow MAs. Downtrend Building: above at most 3 of 7 and at most one fast MA. Mixed: everything else.

Fast group: SMA5, SMA10, EMA21 - react quickly to price changes. Slow group: SMA100, SMA200 - reflect long-term trend direction. When the groups disagree, the label is Turning Up or Turning Down.

Breadth: The percentage of tracked symbols currently above a given MA. SMA50 breadth = number of symbols with Close > SMA50, divided by total universe size.

Regime classification: Based on SMA50 breadth. Bull Market: ≥70%. Recovery: 50–69%. Correction: 30–49%. Bear Market: <30%.

Historical parallel: The closest historical crisis is the one with the smallest distance to today, calculated as the difference in SMA50 breadth plus half the difference in SMA200 breadth. The reference values at each crisis trough were calculated once from our database and are fixed.

Recovery time: Number of calendar months from the crisis trough until SMA50 breadth returned above 60% for the first time.

Methodology & questions

How it works

Each night, all 230 symbols are scanned for defined MA events. A SMA50 Retest is detected on the first close below the SMA50 after at least 3 consecutive closes above it. Outcomes are measured at 5, 10, and 15 trading days from the signal close price. Hit rate is the percentage of events with a positive 15-day return; the baseline for any trading day is 55.8%. Data covers back to 1990 for most symbols.

GDxxxa values express the percentage distance between price and the moving average, normalized by ATR(14). The percentage distance is calculated as (price - MA) / MA × 100 and then divided by ATR(14) in percent of price, providing a volatility-adjusted measure that can be compared across symbols with different price levels and volatility. The SMAa High reference is the average of the highest decile of GDxxxa values over the past 3 years. It represents a typical extreme extension reached during strong trending periods rather than a single outlier.

7 MAs evaluated per symbol: SMA5, SMA10, EMA21, SMA20, SMA50, SMA100, SMA200. Fast group (SMA5/SMA10/EMA21) and slow group (SMA100/SMA200) evaluated separately. Price above all 7 = Uptrend, below (almost) all = Downtrend. Fast and slow group disagree = Turning Up or Turning Down. Partial = Uptrend Building, Downtrend Building or Mixed.

The closest historical parallel is the crisis trough with the smallest distance to today: difference in SMA50 breadth plus half the difference in SMA200 breadth. Recovery time = months until SMA50 breadth returned above 60%.

Score A: hit rate ≥65%, at least 50 historical events for that symbol and event type, and the trend context matches the signal direction (SMA50 above SMA200 for retests, bounces and Golden Crosses, below it for the other events). Score B: hit rate ≥55% and ≥20 events. Score C: everything else.

Nothing on this site constitutes financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All trading involves risk. We use Umami for privacy-friendly, cookieless website analytics. No personal data is tracked and sent to third parties and no tracking cookies are set. All analytics data is stored locally on our own server.

movingaverageresearch.com is an independent research tool built and maintained by a private trader with over 35 years of experience in financial markets and market data infrastructure. Not affiliated with any broker, data vendor, or financial institution.